Moneyball is Overrated

Billy Beane might be the hero to many bloggers and sportswriters, but he isn’t to me. The main theory of moneyball is that defense and speed don’t matter. It doesn’t matter if a base runner goes station to station just as long as he has a good OBP. It also doesn’t matter that he can’t field his position and has 20 errors a year. The theory is that errors, stolen bases, and good defensive plays don’t make as much of a difference over the course of a season as getting on base and extra base hits. Extra base hits and high OBP are nice, and the moneyball theory has been proven right over the course of a season. But the goal of sports is to win a championship. Something moneyball has never done.

The flaw in the theory is that while over the course of a regular season stolen bases, errors, and good defensive plays don’t matter, in the post-season they can change a game. The post-post season is about winning one game at a time and ultimately a series. One great defensive play can give a team momentum that can be carried into the next game and for the rest of the series. In the post-season a team doesn’t face a number 5 starter, and they rarely face a number 4. When facing the best pitching in the league scoring runs is at a premium. One of the best ways is to manufacture a run, something moneyball is against. If a guy hits a lead-off double late in a 1-1 game the next hitter should be bunting, if the lead-off guy gets on base by a walk or single he should try and steal, and the hitters need to give themselves up to get the run in. Of course a three run homer is better than a sac fly, but how many three run homers do you think Johan Santana is going to give up?

So until the A’s get some rings on their fingers then moneyball is a failure, and those who practice it, fools.